Customer
Dutch Petroleum Industry Association (VNPI)

Challenge
In 2017, the Dutch refining industry together with its hydrogen suppliers emitted 12.7 Mt CO2. The Dutch Petroleum Industry Association (VNPI) needed insight in the reduction potential of the Dutch refinery sector.

Approach
In line with climate goals of Paris and the Dutch reduction goals, the consolidated emissions of all industries in The Netherlands must be reduced from 54.4 Mton to 35 Mton by 2030, 14,3 Mton as result of the Climate Agreement, and 5,1 Mton due to existing policies. DNV was asked to investigate the potential of deep decarbonization for the refineries and developed a roadmap towards 2030 and 2050. Activities included:

• Extensive review of the most important technologies for CCS, electrification and hydrogen production and use
• The review provides insight into maturity, time to market and cost development. Based on the insights, reference projects have been defined for these technologies and for residual heat supply and solar
• In consultation with the refineries we investigated, bottom up and for each individual refinery, the possible measures including costs up to 2030. The results were then systematically calculated for various scenarios. The scenarios mainly distinguish themselves in prices for energy and CO2.
• Then we developed top-down road maps for 2030-2050 for CCS, hydrogen and electrification.

The study describes a clear and practical roadmap for the refineries up to 2030 and up to 2050. In addition to carbon capture and storage (CCS), other possible solutions mentioned in the study are energy efficiency projects, carbon capture in the refinery itself, electrification of processes with the use of green electricity, the use of hydrogen as a fuel and supplying residual heat to customers outside the refinery. The technologies are already available or can be realized with expected R&D progress.

Value to the customer
Besides accurate fact-based, market-led insights in carbon reduction pathways, technologies and costs and benefits, the study concluded with several preconditions that have to be met to enable the refinery to achieve its ambitious targets. These preconditions are important ingredients for VNPI in conversations and discussions with government, regulator and other stakeholders.

----

DNV & roadmapping, modeling and technology qualification
The energy transition towards a greener, cleaner and smarter future is changing the game for energy investment. There are new players, new opportunities but also new risks. Understanding the new energy landscape is essential for making strategic decisions. Should I invest in new power plants? How should I optimize my generation portfolio? What impact will future changes have on the grid?

Modeling
DNV has comprehensive modeling and simulation capabilities, providing our clients insights in future scenarios, market and cost developments and give them an understanding of drivers that shape the future. Based on our insights and knowledge of energy industries, we have developed our independent forecast of the world’s energy future ( Energy Transition Outlook ) and how the energy transition may unfold. The forecast is updated every year and serves as a base for many of our modeling and simulation services .

Technology qualification
DNV has developed the risk-based recommended practice (DNV–RP–A203) for Technology Qualification , with the objective to provide a systematic approach for the qualification of technologies, ensuring that a new technology (element) functions reliably within specific limits with an acceptable level of confidence. We’ve applied it to various type so technologies such as energy storage systems, grid technology and offshore technology.

Roadmapping
Roadmapping is a powerful process that provides a good understanding of how future developments could impact on your markets, technologies and products. It mobilises internal and external expertise. DNV has developed a broad range of scenarios and roadmaps in the oil and gas, maritime, energy and sustainability sectors. We develop system, market and technology roadmaps for value chains, industry clusters, single organizations and specific products. We also develop Energy transition and circularity road maps for cities.